Exceptional Mortgage - Providing mortgage loans and information in California

Market Commentary

Updated on Sep 7 2010 11:28AM EST
OpenClose Mortgage Software

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are starting the holiday-shortened week with noticeable losses. The Dow is currently down 72 points while the Nasdaq has lost 12 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s morning rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, so look for the stock markets to drive bond trading the rest of the day. Stocks are reacting negatively to reports of overseas bank concerns. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates will likely follow suit. However, if stocks fall from current levels, we may see afternoon improvements to mortgage rates.

The rest of the week also brings us little economic data for the markets to digest. There are only a couple of events on the calendar that have the potential to influence mortgage pricing. The first comes tomorrow afternoon when the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting. If it reveals any significant surprises, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories on the Fed’s next move. Most likely though, it will be a non-event and will not lead to a noticeable change in mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow is a 10-year Treasury Note auction. It is fairly common to see some weakness in the bond market before these sales as investors prepare for them. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds still exists, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. The results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading tomorrow.

Overall, this week looks like it will be much less active for mortgage rates than last week was. There is no particular data that is important enough to label its day of release as the most important of the week. This may allow the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and therefore, impact mortgage rates this week. As long as the stock markets do not stage a sizable rally or sell-off this week, the likelihood of seeing significant changes to mortgage rates is fairly minimal.